Fidelity, Bloomberg Analysts Predict 75% Chance of Bitcoin ETF Approval This Year

Grayscale Victory and the Rise of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds

Following the recent success of Grayscale in its case against the federal securities regulator, Bloomberg analysts have increased their probability of an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023 to 75%.

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, announced the new odds on crypto Twitter, citing the unanimous and decisive decision of the United States Court of Appeals Circuit as the primary factor. James Seyffart and Elliot Stein, Bloomberg analysts, also noted in their Aug. 30 post that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines.

Seyffart further commented on crypto Twitter that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a “done deal” by Q4 2024, with the approval odds now estimated to have skyrocketed to 95%.

SEC Bitcoin Spot ETF Applications

Given the recent legal and public relations loss, a denial by the SEC will be “politically untennable,” according to crypto Twitter. Over the next five days, seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are due for a “first deadline” decision by the SEC, including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.

According to Bloomberg Crypto, it wouldn’t be surprising if the SEC delays these upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications. However, Harmony One Crypto suggests that the most likely outcome will be that the SEC unexpectedly approves the Bitcoin spot ETFs all at once.