Aug 22, 2023

70% Gains: Why Crypto Regulation and Crypto Alerts Point to a New Bull Cycle for Bitcoin


Bitcoin is in ‘new bull cycle’ — Metric that bottomed before 70% gains

The Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL) metric of Bitcoin (BTC) that successfully predicted the bottom of the bear market in 2022 still indicates an uptrend.

On Aug. 22, the creator of the on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin shared positive news regarding RHODL in an X post.

Analyst: “New money” flowing into Bitcoin in 2023

Even though the 10% BTC price dip last week has changed some of the on-chain landscape, RHODL is still taking a long-term approach to the ongoing bull market.

This metric combines HODL Waves data, which is a group of BTC supply based on the last time each coin or, to be precise, unspent transaction outputs, was moved, and weighs it by the realized price — the price when it was last moved.

To put it simply, the results are quite meaningful.

As Philip Swift mentioned in his LookIntoBitcoin introduction, “Peaks in younger age bands show the times when they have a bigger Realized Value weighting compared to the older Realized Value age bands.”

Right now, coins that were moved three to six months ago are increasing — this is a normal occurrence at the beginning of Bitcoin’s bull markets.

Therefore, commenting on the August decline in BTC/USD, Swift stated that “the recent price dip is in the context of a much bigger bull trend.”

“The 3–6 month band trending up as new money comes back into the market is a sign of a new crypto bull cycle,” he concluded.

Charting the return of BTC price “euphoria”

RHODL has a remarkable record when it comes to BTC price phases, and in December 2022, when BTC/USD was trading at its two-year lows of $15,600, Swift used the metric to signal the conclusion of “euphoria” among Bitcoin’s speculative investors, which he labeled “tourists.” He suggested that the market is likely now at cycle lows, offering maximum risk-reward opportunity.

Beginning in January this year, Bitcoin began a new uptrend that delivered 70% gains in Q1 alone. Since then, investor composition has changed, with short-term holders (STHs) — entities holding BTC for 155 days or less — reducing their overall exposure to their lowest since November 2021.

The latest dip in the crypto market, however, increased pressure on those remaining speculators, with almost 90% of STH coins now held at an unrealized loss.

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