5 Things To Know About Bitcoin Before The August Price Breakout
The crypto world is seeing a classic August picture with Bitcoin (BTC) as it starts the new week — no volatility in sight. The largest cryptocurrency is still trading in a narrow range below $30,000, and both bulls and bears on exchanges seem unable to set a new BTC price trend. Will the status quo…
The crypto world is seeing a classic August picture with Bitcoin (BTC) as it starts the new week — no volatility in sight.
The largest cryptocurrency is still trading in a narrow range below $30,000, and both bulls and bears on exchanges seem unable to set a new BTC price trend.
Will the status quo remain this week? With few macroeconomic triggers, the next major breakout phase for Bitcoin may depend on what whales are doing — data suggests they are accumulating. That hints at the crypto world preparing for a repeat of the narrowest volatility recorded for Bitcoin as seen in the Bollinger Bands metric, similar to September 2016 and January 2023.
It may just be a matter of time before history repeats itself.
Bitcoin copycat move begins new rangebound week
The weekly close of BTC/USD saw a slight volatility return, however, it wasn’t long-lasting. After the new weekly candle opened, the crypto dropped to test $29,000 before rebounding to its previous position, which is still valid at the time of writing, as per Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of Eight trading firm, observed the resemblance and repeated that $29,700 is the level bulls need to regain. Over the weekend, van de Poppe remarked the lack of volatility as “extremely astonishing”.
“The classic dump on Sunday evening took place on Bitcoin,” he told X subscribers, displaying the related areas of interest. Daan Crypto Trades, a popular trader, shared a similar opinion on short-term movements, indicating that even weekend conditions were trending toward unusually calm extremes.
“Dancing around the CME Close price as expected. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen anything different,” he summarized, alongside a chart that put the CME Bitcoin futures closing price for the week prior at $29,465 as the focal point for the start of the week.
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Weekly close clinches key BTC pric level
The weekly close itself nonetheless managed to provide a ray of hope for those analyzing longer-term trends.
Bitcoin, by a slim margin, was able to close the weekly candle above $29,250 — a key level that had been highlighted in recent weeks by popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
In a post just before the event, Rekt Capital mentioned past BTC price action after a close at $29,250 or higher.
“BTC upside moved to the ~$30200 region, just like last week and in April 2023,” he noted.
Providing a potential obstacle was relative strength index (RSI) data, which on on-week timeframes kept on displaying a bearish divergence with price.
“Weekly Bearish Divergence for BTC will remain in place unless the RSI is able to break its downtrend (green),” Rekt Capital commented about the phenomenon.
Historical data gives few clues as to how BTC/USD might act before the monthly close.
As Cointelegraph reported, August is a mixed bag when it comes to BTC price performance, and so far, Bitcoin has changed little compared to the end of July.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that current gains of 0.6% make Bitcoin’s August month the quietest on record.
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Low volatility spurs BTC price breakout predictions
The absence of rapid price movements has been a defining feature of Bitcoin’s price action in the second quarter of this year, despite the heavy press coverage it has received even outside the crypto space.
The Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) is currently measuring 9.57 on weekly timeframes, and is rapidly retracing to its all-time lows from the start of this year.
It is well-known what happened when Bitcoin broke out of a downtrend in January, with its Q1 upside amounting to 70%.
“The volatility on Bitcoin is getting lower and lower,” said van de Poppe.
Similar results come from the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, which is now exhibiting the same behavior as it did at the beginning of 2023.
The narrowing of Bollinger Bands indicates an impending price breakout, though it is uncertain whether it will be an uptrend or a downtrend. With this in mind, market participants are preparing for a dramatic shift.
“The spread between the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin is just 2.9% and is as tight as it has ever been,” stated Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, in an X post on Aug. 14.
Checkmate revealed that Bitcoin had only experienced tighter Bollinger Bands twice in its history — in September 2016 and January 2023 — calling it “wild stuff.”
Whale “reaccumulation” narrative strengthens
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin whales have shifted amid a stagnant BTC price.
This is still ongoing, analysis reveals, and the signs of a bull market could be seen in the accumulation of crypto.com today.
“In the past two weeks, about 10 Bitcoin whales, each holding at least 1,000 BTC (worth a minimum of $29.4 million), have joined the network!” popular trader Ali stated over the weekend.
According to Glassnodedata, the total number of addresses with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC was 2,015 as of Aug. 13 — up from 2,005 on Aug. 1.
Maartunn, a contributor to CryptoQuant, noticed the emergence of new whales on Bitfinex, suggesting that “something is brewing under the surface.”
Root, an on-chain and cycle analyst, commented on the strong start of the cycle bottom, indicating that the market is back in re-accumulation mode with the help of gemini crypto, genesis crypto, gala crypto, and amp crypto.
Bitcoin’s realized price, which is the aggregate price at which the BTC supply last moved, further supports this narrative.
Fed FOMC minutes lead cool macro week
Crypto markets are experiencing a relatively quiet macroeconomic period, in line with the summer lull.
This week, while “big” for US consumer data, is highlighted by the Federal Reserve minutes. These will show the attitudes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members towards interest rate policy as they were when rates were hiked last month.
Risk asset traders continue to look towards the September FOMC meeting for a potential pause in rate hikes — something that should benefit crypto.com today and other crypto like gemini crypto, genesis crypto, gala crypto, amp crypto and crypto cardano.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of that happening stand at almost 90%, with the meeting still over a month away.
Any knee-jerk BTC price reaction to this week’s data printouts, meanwhile, looks unlikely — last week’s more significant releases failed to move markets.