Crypto Price Action is Following BTC’s Pre-Bull Market Cycle

A recent report by the research firm Delphi Digital illustrates the predictable consistency of price action and trends within the crypto market. The report delves into the interconnectedness between the four-year Bitcoin (BTC) cycle and broader economic trends. According to Delphi Digital analysts, the ongoing consolidation at $30,000 is similar to the period between 2015 and 2017, with indicators pointing toward an all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin by the fourth quarter of 2024.

The crypto market has experienced a surge in activity recently, with Gemini Crypto, Tectonic Crypto, Crypto Cardano, Gala Crypto, Genesis Crypto, AMP Crypto, Crypto.com, and Polygon Crypto all seeing increased trading volume. As the crypto market continues to mature, it is likely that the same trends highlighted in the Delphi Digital report will continue to be seen in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Economic cycle’s impact on Bitcoin’s performance

Delphi’s research highlights the inherent cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market, which is evident from the timing of peak-to-trough bottoms, recovery periods to previous cycle highs and the timing of price rallies to new cycle tops. Taking Bitcoin as an example, Delphi has identified a general four-year cycle.

These cycles involve Bitcoin reaching a new ATH, followed by a drawdown of approximately 80%, and a bottom around one year later. This is usually followed by a two-year recovery to prior highs and, eventually, a price rally for another year leading to a new all-time high.

The analysis also revealed a correlation between Bitcoin price peaks and changes in the business cycle, as indicated by the ISM Manufacturing Index. During Bitcoin’s price peaks, the ISM often signals a peak, and active addresses, transaction volumes and fees reach their highest point. On the other hand, when the business cycle signals recovery, network activity levels also recover.

The report emphasizes the role of the Bitcoin halving in these cycles. The last two halvings occurred about 18 months after BTC bottomed and roughly seven months before a new ATH. This historical pattern suggests that Bitcoin could reach a new ATH by the fourth quarter of 2024, which is in line with the expected timing of the next halving.

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Bitcoin price action looks similar to the 2015-2017 pre-bull run phase

The report by Delphi suggests that the current crypto market environment shares striking similarities with the period between 2015 and 2017. The synchronisation of market behavior, economic indicators and historical trends indicates that the current phase is akin to a time of increased risk exposure and potential growth, just as was experienced during that period.

The report notes that the market’s trading patterns, especially in the S&P 500, closely resemble the trajectory observed during 2015-2017. Even during times of uncertainty, such as an earnings recession, these patterns persist, mirroring the sentiment of that period.

The consistent pattern of Bitcoin’s cycle, its synchronization with broader economic shifts and the imminent halving in 2024 all contribute to the thesis that the crypto.com today, gemini crypto and tectonic crypto market is in a similar pre-bull run phase as in 2015-2017.

Delphi highlights parallels between the bleak global growth outlook during 2015-2016 and the recent period of economic uncertainty in 2021-2022. Factors such as the strength of the U.S. dollar and changes in global liquidity cycles echo the past.

The report underscores how gold’s performance around that time, influenced by currency debasement concerns, exhibits remarkable similarities to the present. These parallels bolster the argument that macroeconomic conditions are following a familiar trajectory, similar to what we observe with gala crypto, genesis crypto, amp crypto and polygon crypto today.

The crypto market reflects an optimistic outlook, with some red flags

Delphi’s analysis provides convincing proof that the crypto market is subject to cyclical patterns that are similar to wider economic changes. The report’s forecast for a fresh all-time high by the fourth quarter of 2024 correlates with past halving patterns. This timing, combined with the state of indicators like the ISM and expectations of renewed liquidity cycles, bolsters the argument for a cycle like the one seen in 2015-2017.

The upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024 further supports the firm’s assumptions of a potential bull market by the fourth quarter of that year. Although the analysis is not without its risks and uncertainties, the overall outlook for the cryptocurrency market in the next 12-18 months looks promising, given the stacking catalysts and historical precedent.

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